DEHRADUN, July 1, 2013: A series of advisories sent out by the Met department on June 14, 15 and 16 to various authorities in Uttarakhand warned not only of "very heavy rains" but also urged that people be "moved to safer places" and that the Char Dham yatra be "postponed". These advisories, accessed exclusively by TOI, provide the most damning evidence that the devastation in Uttarakhand could have been averted and thousands of lives saved had the warnings been heeded.

The warnings had been sent to a slew of top officials, including the state's chief secretary, the district magistrates (of the districts where the Char Dham yatra takes place), the Disaster Management and Mitigation Centre, ITBP, OSD to the Char Dham yatra and other top authorities. Tragically, none realized the gravity of these warnings or acted on them.

The warning, issued by the state meteorological department, was not picked up in right earnest even by its own headquarters, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), which could perhaps have alerted the Centre and the state government on the impending danger.

The first of the warnings of "heavy rain" was issued on June 14 in the agro-advisory bulletin. The executive director of the Disaster Management and Mitigation Centre had also been warned of "heavy rains" on the same day. On June 15 - a full day before the catastrophic rains, floods and landslides devastated the state - the weather report predicted "heavy rain during the next 72 hours". This was issued to the DM of Rudraprayag as well as the ITBP. More crucially, the advisory with this report said, "yatris (pilgrims) are requested to get back to safer places".

If this was not enough, a special advisory related to the Char Dham yatra was also issued by the Met department on June 15 which had specifically predicted "heavy to very heavy rains" for June 16 and June 17 and had clearly mentioned the danger: "Warning - Char Dham yatris are advised to postpone yatra by four days."

This advisory was for the Badrinath, Kedarnath, Gangotri, Yamnotri and Joshimath regions — all of which suffered majorly in the subsequent landslides and rains which became violent on the night of June 16.

With not much response and the weather conditions looking increasingly perilous, the state's met department again issued an advisory to various authorities on June 16, shortly before noon, many hours before the destruction, which started towards late evening. The weather report for the Kedarnath and Badrinath regions once again had an advisory, "yatris to get back to safer places. Heavy rains likely during the next 36 hours." The district magistrate of Rudraprayag and the state's chief secretary were also alerted.

When contacted, Anand Kumar Sharma, director of Uttarakhand's meteorological department, confirmed that specific warnings and alerts had been issued along with the weather report. "Yes, I had issued timely and correct weather forecast for heavy to very heavy rains and landslides for June 16 and June 17, with an advisory that people should not venture into the hills and those already there should be moved to safer places." Sharma also confirmed that he had advised that the yatra be postponed in view of the extremely bad weather.

Very heavy rains rare

The state's chief secretary Subhash Kumar, however, sought to play down the warnings, "These (alerts) happen every year, forecasting heavy rains. They say this every year, but do not point out the intensity," he said. Sharma disagrees. He says that the word "very heavy rains" is not a routine warning and is given only in extreme conditions. "This is issued during one of the rarest of rare instances," he emphasized.

Ironically, the chief secretary's casual response to the Met warnings runs contrary to his own praise of Sharma's work and the state's met department very recently.

The lax behavior of the top officials as well as authorities is already under scrutiny and the state's governor is understood to have asked for a report on the matter.

Source: The Hindu, DT. June 30, 2013.